Deforestation forecasts in the Legal Amazon using intervention models

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i4.13787

Keywords:

Amazon; Deforestation; Time series; Intervention models; Forecasts.

Abstract

In this paper, it was used the Box-Jenkins methodology to assess the historical deforestation data generated by PRODES in the Brazilian Legal Amazon region from 1988 to 2018, in order to acquire deforestation forecasts. Considering that the model achieved an acceptable performance, forecasts were estimated for the next seven years (2019 to 2023). If there is no significant intervention in the series, deforestation rates are expected to remain ranging from 7,559.97 km2 to 7,730.88 km2, with a mean around 7,625.12 km2. In the case of an intervention, these quantities may vary from 10,429.28 km2 to 28,669.75 km2, with a mean near to 16,766.71 km2, indicating an increase of 119% on deforestation rates. In this sense, this article reinforces the need for maintenance and expansion of the environmental governance structure for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, according to what has happened in the last decade, especially based on the instruments of Command and Control related, for example, to expansion of Conservation Units, institution of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), inducing land regularization, improvement of the detection and monitoring system of burning and deforestation, such as PRODES and DETER, and also ostensive operations to combat illegal deforestation governmental institutions.

Author Biographies

Anderson da Silva Costa, Amazônia Legal-BIONORTE

Graduated in Forestry Engineering from the Federal Rural University of the Amazon, Specialization in Applied Statistics carried out at the Federal University of Pará. He has a technical course in Remote Sensing (CEFET-PA). MSc. in Science and Environment at UFPA and PhD student in Biodiversity and Biotechnology - Bionorte.

Joaquim Carlos Barbosa Queiroz, Universidade Federal do Pará

Possui graduação em Bacharelado em Física pela Universidade Federal do Pará (1981), mestrado em Geofísica pela Universidade Federal do Pará (1986) e doutorado em Geociências e Meio Ambiente pela Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (2003). Atualmente é Professor Titular do Instituto de Geociências da Universidade Federal do Pará. Tem experiência na área de Geociências, com ênfase em Geologia Ambiental, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: geoestatistica e geoprocessamento, series temporais, estatística aplicada e fatores de risco.

Larissa Steiner Chermont, Universidade Federal do Pará

He holds a degree in Economics from the Federal University of Pará (1988), a master's degree in Latin American Development - University of Glasgow, United Kingdom (1994) and a doctorate in Socioenvironmental Development Sciences - Center for High Amazon Studies (NAEA / UFPA) (2017). She is currently Associate Professor I at the Faculty of Economics (FACECON), Institute of Applied Social Sciences (ICSA) at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA) She has experience in the field of Economics, with an emphasis on Development and Environment, acting mainly on the following themes: Agrarian Economy, Development and Public Policies for the Amazon, Ecological Economy, Creative Economy, Social Capital and Paradiplomacy.

 

Osmar Alves Lameira, Embrapa Amazônia Oriental

Graduated in Agronomy from the Federal Rural University of the Amazon (1976), master's degree in Agronomy (Phytotechnics) from the Federal University of Lavras (1987), Specialization in Plant Biotechnology from JICA-Japan in 1992 and a PhD in Agronomy (Fitotecnia) from the Federal University of Lavras (1997). He is currently a researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. He has experience in the field of Agronomy, with an emphasis on Genetic Resources and Plant Biotechnology, acting mainly on the following themes: micropropagation, medicinal plants, plant tissue culture, plant genetic resources, phytotherapy, phytotechnics, cell biotechnology, plant propagation.

Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Universidade Federal do Pará

Doctor in Meteorology from the University of São Paulo (USP / IAG, 2003), Master in Meteorology from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE / CPTEC, 1997) and Bachelor of Meteorology from the Federal University of Pará (UFPA, 1993). He is a public servant with a public exam and currently holds the position of Associate Professor IV at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA) at the Geosciences Institute (IG). Since 2006 he has been a Professor at the Faculty of Meteorology (FAMET) and since 2007 he is a Permanent Professor of the Postgraduate Program (Master and Doctorate) in Environmental Sciences (PPGCA) at UFPA / MPEG / EMBRAPA (Course Note 5 - CAPES). Current Coordinator of the PPGCA in the three-year period 2018/2019/2020.

Marcelo Bentes Diniz, Universidade Federal do Pará

He holds a degree in Economics from the Federal University of Pará (1993), a master's degree in the Postgraduate Course in Economics - CAEN from the Federal University of Ceará, with a concentration in Economic Theory (1997), a doctorate also in the Postgraduate Course in Economics - CAEN by the Federal University of Ceará (2005), with a concentration in Economic and Regional Development and Post-Doctorate at the University of Florida (2015). He is currently an Associate Professor at the Federal University of Pará.

Helyelson Paredes Moura, Universidade Federal do Amapá

He has a degree in Physics from the Federal University of Pará (1989), a master's degree in Geophysics from the Federal University of Pará (1992) and a doctorate in Geosciences and Environment from the Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (2002). He is currently associate professor IV at the Federal University of Amapá.

Debora Lisboa Correa Costa, Universidade Federal do Pará

Graduated in full degree in Pedagogy from the Federal University of Pará, with a degree in Licentiate in Early Childhood Education, School Guidance and School Administration, with a Specialization in Informatics and Education from the State University of Pará and Master in Theory and Research of Behavior from the Federal University of Pará.

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01/04/2021

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COSTA, A. da S. .; QUEIROZ, J. C. B. .; CHERMONT, L. S. .; LAMEIRA, O. A. .; SOUZA, E. B. de .; DINIZ, M. B.; MOURA, H. P. .; COSTA, D. L. C. . Deforestation forecasts in the Legal Amazon using intervention models . Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 10, n. 4, p. e8710413787, 2021. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v10i4.13787. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13787. Acesso em: 20 apr. 2021.

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Exact and Earth Sciences