Wind Energy: Identification and ranking of risks associated with investment projects

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i14.22011

Keywords:

Renewable energies; Wind energy; Energy projects; Risk management.

Abstract

The concept of sustainable development makes investments, in times of economic crisis, related to environmental aspects, especially those that include renewable energy sources. In this context, due to its highly favorable physical and climatic characteristics, Brazil has a high potential for exploring alternative natural energy sources. Along these lines, such issues justify the recent growth of projects dedicated to wind power generation in Brazil. Nevertheless, despite the broad benefits contemplated by projects in the sector, high levels of uncertainty can pose obstacles to investors. Thus, through a prior approach to the risks associated with investment projects in renewable sources of wind energy, it is possible to identify a critical structure that will contribute to the critical view of investors, providing greater levels of security for their intentions. Thus, we sought to identify the main risk factors associated with the generating source of wind energy, highlighted in the literature. Then, from the elaboration of a Survey, a questionnaire was applied in a non-probabilistic sample, characterized by professionals and specialists working in the sector. The data obtained were evaluated through multivariate analysis, whose objective was to develop a critical framework to assist investment, planning and management projects, where the results identified 34 risk factors associated with wind energy sources in Brazil, which were ranked according to the degrees of impact. In descending order, the following stand out: bureaucracy; country risk; environmental licenses; contractual risks and regulatory risks.

References

ABEEOLICA. Associação Brasileira de Energia Eólica (2020). http://abeeolica.org.br/energia-eolica-o-setor. Brasília: ABEEOLICA.

ABNT - Associação Brasileira de Normas Técnicas (2018). NBR ISO 31000:2018. Guia Para a Gestão de Riscos. Brasilia, 2018.

ANAEEL - Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Brasil). Retrospectiva 2020 / Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica. – Brasília: ANEEL, 2021.

APM - Association for Project Management (1997) http://www.apm.org.uk.

Bhattacharya, A.; Kojima, S. (2012). Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: a Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method. Energy Policy, 69-80.

Bittencourt, E. G. (2018). Avaliação dos riscos em um contrato de preço global para implantação de um complexo eólico. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis.

Chin, W. W. (1998). The partial least squares approach to structural equation modeling. In: Methodology for business and management. Modern methods for business research. 1st. ed. Mahwah, NJ, US: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

Cicco, F.; Fantazzini, M. L. (2003). Tecnologias consagradas de gestão de riscos: riscos e probabilidades. São Paulo: Séries Risk Management, Risk Tecnologia Editora Ltda.

Efron, B.; TibshiranI, R.J. (1998). An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Champman & Hall: Bookkman..

Fornell, C.; Larcker, D.F. Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error (1981). In: Journal of Marketing Research, v.18, n.1, 1-12.

Frankfurt School-UNEP CENTRE/BNEF (2020). Global trends in renewable energy investment https://www.fs-unep-centre.org/global-trends-in-renewable-energy-investment-2020/

Freitas, A. P. A., Santos, J. A. N. dos, Oliveira, E. P. de, Fernandes, D. R., & Oliveira, N. L. F. de. (2021). Exploratory study of the dimensions of risks in civil construction projects. Research, Society and Development, 10(7), e14410716452. https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i7.16452.

Gomes, L. F. B. (2017). Análise de cenários de risco no controle de custos em projetos de usinas de energia renovável. Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói.

Hair, J. F. et al. (2009). Análise Multivariada de Dados. Porto Alegre: Editora Bookman.

Henseler, J. Ringle, C.M.; Sinkovics, R. R. (2009). The use of partial least squares path modeling in international marketing. Advances in International Marketing, v.20.

Hoyle, R. H.; Duvall,J.L.(2004). Determining the number of factors in exploratory and confirmatory analysis. In: D.Kaplan (Ed.): The Sage handbook of quantitative methodology for the social sciences. [S.l] Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Ioannou,A., Angusb,A., Brennana,F.(2017). Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 74, 602– 615.

Keelling, R. (2006). Gestão de projetos: uma abordagem global. São Paulo: Editora: Saraiva.

Kucukali, S. (2015). Risk scorecard concept in wind energy projects: an integrated approach. Turquia.

MCTIC – Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (2020) https://www.gov.br/mcti/pt-br.

Meireles, A. J. D. A. (2008) Danos socioambientais originados pelas usinas eólicas nos campos de dunas do nordeste brasileiro e critérios para definição de alternativas locacionais. Confins.

Mingoti, S. A. (2005). Análise de dados através de métodos de estatística multivariada: uma abordagem aplicada. Belo Horizonte: Editora UFMG, 2005.

Modarres, M. (2006). Risk analysis in engineering: techniques, tools, and trends. Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis Group.

Nunnally, J. C.; Bernstein, I.H. (1994). Psychometric Theory. 3rd.ed. New York, N.Y.: Mc-Graw-Hill.

Perea,M. M. A, Hernandez,E.Q, (2018). Renewable Energy in Urban Areas: Worldwide Research Trends. Energies, 11(3), 577.

Pereira Neto, A. (2014). A energia eólica no direito ambiental brasileiro. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Synergia.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (2017). Um guia do conjunto de conhecimentos do gerenciamento de projetos: PMBOK® Guide 6.ed. Newton Square: 14 Campus Boulevard.

Reis,P. (2009). Teoria e funcionamento da energia eólica https://www.portal-energia.com/teoria-energia-eolica/.

Santini, J. C. C. (2017). Gestão de riscos na implantação de projetos eólicos proposição de um modelo de análise de riscos. Universidade do Sul, Florianópolis

Simas, M.; Pacca, S. (2013) Energia eólica, geração de empregos e desenvolvimento sustentável. Revista Estudos Avançados, 99-15.

Sovernigo, M. H. (2009). Impacto dos aerogeradores sobre a avifauna e quiropterofauna no Brasil. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis.

Tavares, E. (2016). Energia eólica: viabilidade técnica e econômico-financeira. Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto.

Tenenhaus, M. et al. (2005). PLS path modeling. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 48(1), 159-205, Paris.

Trannin, M. (2016) Desafios e oportunidades para a geração de energia elétrica por fontes renováveis no brasil. Editora FGV Energia.

Valeriano, D. L. (1998) Gerencia em Projetos: Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento e Engenharia. Editora Makron Books.

Venchiarutti,M. M. (2102) Estudo sobre a viabilidade de Implementação de um aerogerador em uma cervejaria. Lorena.

Published

11/11/2021

How to Cite

ONO, E. M.; ROSÁRIO, J. M.; FREITAS, A. P. A.; SANTOS, J. A. N. dos. Wind Energy: Identification and ranking of risks associated with investment projects. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 10, n. 14, p. e490101422011, 2021. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v10i14.22011. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/22011. Acesso em: 21 jul. 2024.

Issue

Section

Engineerings