Performance indicators to be explored in order to win Premier League matches

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v12i5.41379

Keywords:

Football; Performance indicators; Market value; Venue; Winning football matches.

Abstract

Football is a dynamic collective sport that involves the actions of players on the field, in addition to the availability and application of player data. Being a sport extensively investigated in terms of performance analysis, there is still a need for more predictive analyzes to better understand the indicators of success. Due to these aspects, this research aimed to verify the influence of the market value of football clubs, as well as the influence of the venue and the tactical/technical aspects - shots on target, corners, crosses, ball possession and passes -, to win Premier League matches. To carry out this research, data from all 380 matches of the PL 2015/2016 season were used. The Transfermarkt website was used to collect the market value of the teams and the Daily Mail website to collect the matches data. Data analysis was performed using the Weka software. The results showed that the market value and the venue, separately, were not relevant to the victories, but when associated to tactical/technical indicators, both contributed with the victories of the teams. Concept A teams, with higher market values, achieved more victories than the concept C teams, with lower market values, in the home games when the aforementioned associations were analyzed. The results of the performed analyzes show that direct and indirect game actions are relevant for teams to win matches played at home, especially for the ones with higher market value.

References

Almeida, C. H., Ferreira, A. P., & Volossovitch, A. (2014). Effects of match location, match status and quality of opposition on regaining possession in UEFA champions league. Journal of Human Kinetics, 41(1), 203–214. https://doi.org/10.2478/hukin-2014-0048

Anderson, C., & Sally, D. (2013). Os números do jogo: por que tudo o que você sabe sobre futebol está errado. Paralela.

Armatas, V., Yiannakos, A., Papadopoulou, S., & Galazoulas, C. (2007). Analysis of the set-plays in the 18th World Cup in Germany. Physical Training, September(1), 10–17. https://ejmas.com/pt/ptframe.htm

Barbosa, D. R. (2014). Configuração espacial de interação no momento da recuperação da posse de bola em Futebol: Estudo de caso realizado com o recurso ao sistema Amisco® [Universidade do Porto]. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/bitstream/10216/77565/2/33624.pdf

Bate, R. (1988). Football chance: tactics and strategy. In T. Reilly, A. Lees, K. Davids, & W. Murphy (Eds.), Science and football (pp. 293–301). E & F.N. Spon.

Beare, H., & Stone, J. A. (2019). Analysis of attacking corner kick strategies in the FA women’s super league 2017/2018. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(6), 893–903. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2019.1677329

Besemann, C., Denton, A., & Yekkirala, A. (2004). Differential association rule mining for the study of protein-protein interaction networks. In M. J. Zaki, S. Morishita, & I. Rigoutsos (Eds.), BIOKDD’04: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Data Mining in Bioinformatics (pp. 72–80). Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.5555/3000580.3000590

Bilek, G., & Ulas, E. (2019). Predicting match outcome according to the quality of opponent in the English premier league using situational variables and team performance indicators. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(6), 930–941. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2019.1684773

Bradley, P. S., Carling, C., McCall, A., & Dupont, G. (2016). Match-to-match variability in high-speed running activity in a professional soccer team. Journal of Sports Sciences, 34(24), 2215–2223. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2016.1176228

Bradley, Paul Simon, Lago-Peñas, C., Rey, E., & Sampaio, J. (2014). The influence of situational variables on ball possession in the English Premier League. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(20), 1867–1873. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.887850

Carling, C., Reilly, T., & Williams, A. M. (2008). Performance assessment for field sports. Routledge.

Carlos Lago. (2009). The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on possession strategies in professional association football. Journal of Sport Sciences, 27(13), 1463–1469. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903131681

Castellano, J., Casamichana, D., & Lago, C. (2012). The use of match statistics that discriminate between successful and unsuccessful soccer teams. Journal of Human Kinetics, 31(1), 139–147. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10078-012-0015-7

Collet, C. (2013). The possession game? A comparative analysis of ball retention and team success in European and international football, 2007-2010. Journal of Sports Sciences, 31(2), 123–136. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.727455

De Baranda, P. S., & Lopez-Riquelme, D. (2012). Analysis of corner kicks in relation to match status in the 2006 World Cup. European Journal of Sport Science, 12(2), 121–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2010.551418

Drust, B., Atkinson, G., & Reilly, T. (2007). Future Perspectives in the Evaluation of the Physiological Demands of Soccer. Sports Medicine, 37(9), 783–805.

Elyakim, E., Morgulev, E., Lidor, R., Meckel, Y., Arnon, M., & Ben-Sira, D. (2020). Comparative analysis of game parameters between Italian league and Israeli league football matches. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 20(2), 165–179. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2020.1726158

Fernandez-Navarro, J., Fradua, L., Zubillaga, A., Ford, P. R., & McRobert, A. P. (2016). Attacking and defensive styles of play in soccer: analysis of Spanish and English elite teams. Journal of Sports Sciences, 34(24), 2195–2204. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2016.1169309

Fernandez-Navarro, J., Fradua, L., Zubillaga, A., & McRobert, A. P. (2018). Influence of contextual variables on styles of play in soccer. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(3), 423–436. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2018.1479925

Garganta, J. (2009). Trends of tactical performance analysis in team sports: bridging the gap between research, training and competition. Revista Portuguesa de Ciências Do Desporto, 9(1), 81–89. http://www.scielo.mec.pt/scielo.php?pid=S1645-05232009000100008&script=sci_arttext&tlng=es

Garratt, K., Murphy, A., & Bower, R. (2017). Passing and goal scoring characteristics in Australian A-League football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 1(2), 77–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2017.1303991

Gollan, S., Ferrar, K., & Norton, K. (2018). Characterising game styles in the English Premier League using the “moments of play” framework. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(6), 998–1009. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2018.1539383

Grund, T. U. (2012). Network structure and team performance: The case of English Premier League soccer teams. Social Networks, 34(4), 682–690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2012.08.004

Hughes, C. (1990). The Winning Formula. London William Collins & Co.

Hughes, M., & Franks, I. M. (2005). Notational Analysis of Sport (2nd ed.). Routledge.

Johnson, R. A., & Wichern, D. W. (2007). Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis (6th ed.). Pearson education.

Konefał, M., Chmura, P., Zacharko, M., Chmura, J., Rokita, A., & Andrzejewski, M. (2018). Match outcome vs match status and frequency of selected technical activities of soccer players during UEFA Euro 2016. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport2, 18(4), 568–581. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2018.1501991

Kubayi, A., & Larkin, P. (2019). Analysis of teams’ corner kicks defensive strategies at the FIFA World Cup 2018. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(5), 809–819. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2019.1660547

Kuper, S., & Szymanski, S. (2014). Soccernomics: why england loses, why Spain, Germany, and Brazil win, and why the US, Japan, Australia – and even Iraq – are destinated to become the kings of the world’s most popular sport (3rd ed.). Nation Books.

Lago-Peñas, C., & Dellal, A. (2010). Ball possession strategies in elite soccer according to the evolution of the match-score: The influence of situational variables. Journal of Human Kinetics, 25(1), 93–100. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10078-010-0036-z

Lago-Peñas, C., & Gómez-López, M. (2014). How important is it to score a goal? the influence of the scoreline on match performance in elite soccer. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 119(3), 774–784. https://doi.org/10.2466/23.27.PMS.119c32z1

Lago-Peñas, C., & Lago-Ballesteros, J. (2011). Game location and team quality effects on performance profiles in professional soccer. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 10(3), 465–471.

Lago-Peñas, C., Lago-Ballesteros, J., Dellal, A., & Gómez, M. (2010). Game-related statistics that discriminated winning, drawing and losing teams from the Spanish soccer league. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 9(2), 288–293.

Lane, J. C., van der Ploeg, G., Greenham, G., & Norton, K. (2020). Characterisation of offensive and defensive game play trends in the Australian Football League (1999–2019). International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 20(4), 557–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2020.1758438

Legaz-Arrese, A., Moliner-Urdiales, D., & Munguía-Izquierdo, D. (2013). Home advantage and sports performance: Evidence, causes and psychological implications. Universitas Psychologica, 12(3), 933–943. https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.UPSY12-3.hasp

Lepschy, H., Wäsche, H., & Woll, A. (2018). How to be Successful in Football: A Systematic Review. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 11(1), 3–23. https://doi.org/10.2174/1875399x01811010003

Lepschy, H., Wäsche, H., & Woll, A. (2020). Success factors in football: an analysis of the German Bundesliga. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 20(2), 150–164. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2020.1726157

Lima, E. M. R., Tertuliano, I. W., Aroni, A. L., Machado, A. A., & Fischer, C. N. (2017). Mercado de transferências de atletas de futebol e o processo de globalização: correlação entre os valores do Transfermarkt e do jogo eletrônico Football Manager. Revista Inteligência Competitiva, 7(1), 72–90.

Lima, Eric Matheus Rocha, Oliveira, V., Pavlović, V., Fischer, C. N., Machado, A. A., & Tertuliano, I. W. (2018). The Influence of Expenditures in Football Industry Results: Case Study of the Brazilian Football League. Management:Journal of Sustainable Business and Management Solutions in Emerging Economies, 23(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.7595/management.fon.2018.0006

Lima, Eric Matheus Rocha, Tertuliano, I. W., Aroni, A. L., & Fischer, C. N. (2021). Signing South American Footballers represents a good investment: electronic game football manager’s perspective. In I. Ljumovic & I. Stancheva-Gigov (Eds.), Finance, Innovation and Technology: new models and structures (pp. 44–54). Institute of Economics - Ss. Cyril & Methodius University in Skopje.

Lima, Eric Matheus Rocha, Tertuliano, I. W., Aroni, A. L., Machado, A. A. A., & Fischer, C. N. (2018). Saga Football Manager na gestão esportiva: uma ferramenta tecnológica para monitorar jogadores promissores. Lecturas: Educación Física y Deportes, 23(239), 1–11.

Liu, H., Yi, Q., Giménez, J. V., Gómez, M. A., & Lago-Peñas, C. (2015). Performance profiles of football teams in the UEFA champions league considering situational efficiency. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 15(1), 371–390. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2015.11868799

Liu, W.-H., Chuang, H.-L., Huang, Y.-T., Wu, C.-C., Chou, G.-T., Wang, S., & Tsai, Y.-C. (2016). Alteration of behavior and monoamine levels attributable to Lactobacillus plantarum PS128 in germ-free mice. Behavioural Brain Research, 298, 202–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2015.10.046

Mackenzie, R., & Cushion, C. (2012). Performance analysis in football: A critical review and implications for future research. Journal of Sports Sciences, 31(6), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.746720

McGuckin, B., Bradley, J., Hughes, M., O’Donoghue, P., & Martin, D. (2020). Determinants of successful possession in elite Gaelic football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 20(3), 420–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2020.1758433

Mijatović, P., Pavlović, V., Milačić, L. J., & MIlačić, S. (2015). Effect of investment on financial and sports results. Industrija, 43(2), 143–165. https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija43-7548

Mitrotasios, M., & Armatas, V. (2014). Analysis of goal scoring patterns in the 2012 european football championship. The Sport Journal, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137455062

Moreira, P. E. D., Silva, J. V. de O., Praça, G. M., Matias, C. J. A. da S., & Greco, P. J. (2016). Relação entre vantagem em casa e o efeito do primeiro gol nos resultados finais das partidas de futebol do campeonato brasileiro. Conexões, 14(1), 53–65. https://doi.org/10.20396/conex.v14i1.8644766

Oliveira, S. R. M., Zaïane, O. R., & Saygin, Y. (2004). Secure association rule sharing. 8th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2004, 74–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24775-3_10

Page, R., & Robins, M. T. (2012). A corner kick analysis of a League One professional football team. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 12(3), 793.

Passos, P., Amaro e Silva, R., Gomez-Jordana, L., & Davids, K. (2020). Developing a two-dimensional landscape model of opportunities for penetrative passing in association football–Stage I. Journal of Sports Sciences, 38(21), 2407–2414. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2020.1786991

Pavlovic, V., Mijatovic, P., Milacic, S., Pavlović, V., Mijatović, P., & MIlačić, S. (2013). Financial Reporting of Football Clubs in R. Serbia. Management - Journal for Theory and Practice of Management, 18(67), 55–62. https://doi.org/10.7595/management.fon.2013.0013

Pavlovic, V., Milacic, S., & Ljumovic, I. (2014). Controversies about the accounting treatment of transfer fee in the football industry. Management - Journal for Theory and Practice of Management, 19(70), 17–24. https://doi.org/10.7595/management.fon.2014.0001

Perarnau, M. (2015). Guardiola Confidencial. Grande Área.

Perarnau, M. (2017). Pep Guardiola: A evolução. Grande Área.

Poon, S., Douglas, A., & Hopkins, W. G. (2012). Notational analysis of long corner kicks in an international youth football tournament. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 12(3), 692.

Pulling, C. (2015). Long corner kicks in the English premier league: Deliveries into the goal area and critical area. Kinesiology, 47(2), 193–201.

Pulling, C., Eldridge, D., Ringshall, E., & Robins, M. T. (2018). Analysis of crossing at the 2014 FIFA World Cup. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(4), 657–677. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2018.1509255

Pulling, C., & Newton, J. (2017). Defending corner kicks in the English Premier League: near-post guard systems. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 17(3), 283–292. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2017.1331577

Pulling, C., Robins, M., & Rixon, T. (2013). Defending corners: Analysis from the English Premier League. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13(1), 135–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2013.11868637

Reis, M. A. M. dos, Vasconcellos, F. V. do A., & Almeida, M. B. de. (2017). Analysis of the effectiveness of long distance passes in 2014 Brazil Fifa Brasil 2014. Revista Brasileira Cineantropometria Humana, 19(6), 676–685. https://doi.org//10.5007/1980-0037.2017v19n6p676

Rocha-Lima, E. M. (2018). Associação de indicadores do futebol com os resultados das partidas da Premier League 2015/2016. Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho.

Rocha-Lima, E. M., Tertuliano, I. W., & Fischer, C. N. (2021). The influence of ball possession, passes and shots on target in winning premier league football matches. Research, Society and Development, 10(8), e55110817824. https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i8.17824 The

Rocha-Lima, E. M., Tertuliano, I. W., & Fisher, C. N. (2021). The influence of crosses, shots, corner kicks and defensive movements in the results of Premier League matches. Research, Society and Development, 10(6), e477101624072. https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i16.24072

Sæbø, O. D., & Hvattum, l. M. (2015). Evaluating the efficiency of the association football transfer market using regression based player ratings. NIK-2015 Conference. http://www.nik.no/

Sarmento, H., Marcelino, R., Anguera, M. T., Campaniço, J., Matos, N., & Leitão, J. C. (2014). Match analysis in football: a systematic review. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(20), 1831–1843. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.898852

Schauberger, G., Groll, A., & Tutz, G. (2018). Analysis of the importance of on-field covariates in the German Bundesliga. Journal of Applied Statistics, 45(9), 1561–1578. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2017.1383370

Schmicker, R. H. (2013). An application of satscan to evaluate the spatial distribution of corner kick goals in major league soccer. International Journal of Computer Science in Sport, 12(2), 70–79.

Souza, D. B., Campo, R. L.-D., Blanco-Pita, H., Resta, R., & Coso, J. Del. (2019). A new paradigm to understand success in professional football: analysis of match statistics in LaLiga for 8 complete seasons. Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(4), 543–555. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2019.1632580

Stanhope, J. (2001). An investigation into possession with respect to time in the Soccer World Cup 1994. In Mike Hughes (Ed.), Notational analysis of sport III (pp. 155–162). Centre for Performance Analysis, UWIC.

Strafford, B. W., Smith, A., North, J. S., & Stone, J. A. (2019). Comparative analysis of the top six and bottom six teams’ corner kick strategies in the 2015/2016 English Premier League. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(6), 904–918. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2019.1677379

Taylor, B. J., Mellalieu, D. S., James, N., & Barter, P. (2010). Situation variable effects and tactical performance in professional association football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 10(3), 255–269. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2010.11868520

Taylor, J. B., James, N., & Mellalieu, s. D. (2005). Notational analysis of corner kick in English Premier League soccer. In Thomas Reilly, J. Cabri, & D. Araújo (Eds.), Science and Football V (pp. 229–234). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203412992

Taylor, J., Mellalieu, S., James, N., & Shearer, D. (2008). The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on technical performance in professional association football. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26(9), 885–895. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410701836887

Tenga, A., A., M., & O’Donoghue, P. (2017). Opposition interaction in creating penetration during match play in elite soccer: evidence from UEFA champions league matches. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 17(5), 802–812. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2017.1399326

Tenga, A., Holme, I., Ronglan, L. T., & Bahr, R. (2010). Effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possessions in a random series of team possessions from Norwegian professional soccer matches. Journal of Sports Sciences, 28(3), 245–255. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903502766

Tenga, A., & Larsen, Ø. (2003). Testing the validity of match analysis to describe playing styles in football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 3(2), 90–102. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2003.11868280

Tertuliano, I. W., Lima, E. M. R., Oliveira, V. de, Pavlovic, V., Machado, A. A., & Fischer, C. N. (2018). Do financial results influence sports results in football industry? Case study of the Brazilian football league. Industrija, 46(1), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija46-16116

Tertuliano, I. W., Lima, E. M. R., Oliveira, V., Santana, B. A., Pavlović, V., & Machado, A. A. (2020). Sport management in Emerging Economy: Squad size, Expenses and Results – Case of the Brazilian Football League. Management:Journal of Sustainable Business and Management Solutions in Emerging Economies, 25(1), 57–66. https://doi.org/10.7595/management.fon.2019.0003

Weiss, S. M., & Zhang, T. (2003). Performance analysis and evaluation. In N. Ye (Ed.), The handbook of data mining (pp. 425–440). Lawrence Eribaum Associates.

Weka. (2020). Documentação. http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka.org/

Wilson, J. (2013). Inverting the Piyramid: The History of Football Tactics (2nd ed.). Orion.

Yang, C.-L., & Chen, C.-H. (2018). Effectiveness of aerobic gymnastic exercise on stress, fatigue, and sleep quality during postpartum: A pilot randomized controlled trial. International Journal of Nursing Studies, 77, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2017.09.009

Yi, Q., Gómez, M. Á., Liu, H., & Sampaio, J. (2019). Variation of match statistics and football teams’ match performance in the group stage of the UEFA champions league from 2010 to 2017. Kinesiology, 51(2), 170–181. https://doi.org/10.26582/k.51.2.4

Yiannakos, A., & Armatas, V. (2006). Evaluation of the goal scoring patterns in European Championship in Portugal 2004. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 6(1), 178–188. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2006.11868366

Zheng, Z., Kohavi, R., & Mason, L. (2001). Real world performance of association rule algorithms. Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 401–406. https://doi.org/10.1145/502512.502572

Zhou, C., Zhang, S., Calvo, A. L., & Cui, Y. (2018). Chinese soccer association super league, 2012–2017: key performance indicators in balance games. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(4), 645–656. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2018.1509254

Downloads

Published

26/04/2023

How to Cite

LIMA, E. M. R. .; TERTULIANO, I. W. .; FISCHER, C. N. . Performance indicators to be explored in order to win Premier League matches. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 12, n. 5, p. e2912541379, 2023. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v12i5.41379. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/41379. Acesso em: 27 apr. 2024.

Issue

Section

Teaching and Education Sciences