Dynamic Incremental Model (MDI) to forecast the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic stabilization period

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6201

Keywords:

COVID-19; Dynamic Model; Prediction; Deaths.

Abstract

Since the beginning of the year 2020, the world has been experiencing a COVID-19 pandemic, which challenges the public sector to make quick and efficient decisions, as the result is counted in lives. Thus, it is necessary to search for predictive models that support the decision and assist in the understanding of the behavior of the transmissions. In this context, the work aims to present a dynamic model for the daily increase in the number of deaths in order to determine a safety range capable of predicting a stabilization period for these deaths. For this, the model uses exponential and potential curves as limits for analyzing the behavior of the increment curve. The model proved to be efficient when compared to the actual data obtained so far.

Author Biographies

Marcus Vinicius Dantas de Assunção, Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte

Engenheiro de Produção, Mestrado em Administração,  Doutorado em Ciência e Engenharia de Petróleo e Professor de Logística do IFRN

Carla Simone de Lima Teixeira Assuncao, Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte

Engenheira de Produção, Mestrado em Engenharia de Produção, Doutora em Ciência e Engenharia de Petróleo e professora de Logística do IFRN.

Rute Anadila Amorim Oliveira, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Técnica em Logística e graduanda em Engenharia de Produção.

Mariah Caroline Martins de Sousa, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Técnica em Logística e graduanda em Engenharia de Produção.

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Published

27/07/2020

How to Cite

ASSUNÇÃO, M. V. D. de; ASSUNCAO, C. S. de L. T.; OLIVEIRA, R. A. A.; SOUSA, M. C. M. de. Dynamic Incremental Model (MDI) to forecast the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic stabilization period. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 9, n. 8, p. e732986201, 2020. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6201. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6201. Acesso em: 14 nov. 2024.

Issue

Section

Exact and Earth Sciences