Una estimación del Impacto de las instituciones presupuestarias en el equilibrio fiscal de los países de América del Sur: 1975-2017

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i10.19101

Palabras clave:

Politica fiscal; Instituciones tributarias; Países de América del Sur; Economía.

Resumen

Comprender los factores que influyen en el desempeño fiscal de un país es imperativo para lograr una política fiscal equilibrada y sostenible en el largo plazo. Así, con este trabajo se propone dar respuesta a esta pregunta analizando el impacto de las instituciones y las reglas fiscales sobre el resultado primario para una muestra de países de América del Sur, para lo cual se utilizó la aplicación de un modelo econométrico. El resultado revela el impacto de las instituciones y reglas fiscales, así como otras variables económicas y políticas de control. La conclusión es que las instituciones fiscales contribuyen al logro de resultados primarios positivos, mientras que las reglas fiscales no inciden en esta variable, revelando que, para los países aquí examinados, el camino a seguir es mejorar su proceso presupuestario a través de las instituciones fiscales.

Citas

Abuelafia, E. et al (2005). Who Decides on Public Expenditures? A Political Economy Analysis of the Budget Process: The Case of Argentina. Inter-American Development Bank.

Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J. (2012). Por que as nações fracassam: as origens do poder, da prosperidade e da pobreza. 8 ed. Trad. of Cristiana Serra. Elsevier.

Alesina, A. & Drazen, A. (1991). Why Are Stabilizations Delayed? American Economic Review, 81, 1170–1188.

Alesina, A. & Perotti, R. (1999). Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions. In: Poterba, J. M. & Von Hagen, J. (Ed.). Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. University of Chicago Press.

Ayala, U. & Perotti, R. (2000). The Colombian Budget Process. Working Papers Series, n. 14. La Fundación para la Educación Superior y el Desarrollo, Bogotá, Colombia.

Barro, R. J. (1979). On the determination of the public debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971.

Binder, A., Mauro, P., Romeu, R. & Zaman, A. (2013). A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy. IMF Working Paper, 13/5, 2013.

Blanco, F., et al. (2020). Fiscal rules and economic size in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank Group.

Blöndal, J. R. & Curristine, T. (2015). Budgeting in Chile. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 4(2), 7-45.

Blöndal, J. R., Goretti, C. & Kristensen, J. K. (2003). Budgeting in Brazil. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 3(1), 97-131.

Buchanan, J. M. & Wagner, R. E. (1977). Democracy in deficit: the political legacy of Lord Keynes. Academic Press.

Buera, F. & Nicolini, J. P. (2010). The Fiscal and Monetary History of Argentina 1960-2007. Manuscript, UCLA, 9.

Caputo, R. & Saravia, D. (2014). The fiscal and monetary history of Chile 1960-2010. Central Bank of Chile.

Charotti, C. J., Fernández-Valdovinos, C. & Gonzalez Soley, F. (2019). The Monetary and Fiscal History of Paraguay, 1960–2017. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper.

Cruz, C., Scartascini, C. & Keefer, P. (2018). The Database of Political Institutions 2017 (DPI2017). Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento.

Diaz, G. M. et al. (2007). El sistema presupuestario boliviano 1960–2003 y propuesta de presupuesto plurianual. Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana, 83.

Eichengreen, B. (1990). One money for Europe? Lessons from the US currency union. Economic Policy, 5(10), 117-187.

Eichengreen, B. & Von Hagen, J. (1996). Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions, and the No-Bailout Rule. In: Center for International and Development Economics Research. Working Paper, C95-056.

Fabrizio, S. & Mody, A. (2006). Can Budget Institutions Counteract Political Indiscipline? IMF Working Paper, 06/123.

Federal Reserve of St. Louis (2019). Federal Reserve Economic Data. FRED website. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/>.

Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. C. (2015). Econometria Básica: (5th ed.), Amgh Editora.

Hallerberg, M. S., Scartascini, C. G. & Stein, E. (2009). Who decides the budget? a political economy analysis of the budget process in Latin America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Hallerberg, M., Strauch, R. R. & Von Hagen, J. (2009). Fiscal Governance in Europe. Cambridge University Press.

Hallerberg, M. & Von Hagen, J. (1999) Electoral institutions, cabinet negotiations, and budget deficits in the European Union. In: Poterba J. M. & Von Hagen, J. (Eds.). Fiscal institutions and fiscal performance. University of Chicago Press, 209-232.

Indexmundi (2019). Taxa de inflação (preços ao consumidor) Argentina. Indexmundi website. https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ar&v=71&l=pt.

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada. Ipeadata. 2019. Website Ipeadata. http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspx.

International Monetary Fund (2019). Fiscal Monitor, 2019. IMF website. http://data.imf.org/?sk=4BE0C9CB-272A-4667-8892-34B582B21BA6&sId=1390030341854.

International Monetary Fund (2017). Fiscal Rules Dataset, 2017. IMF website. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/fiscalrules/map/map.htm.

Kehoe, T. J., Machicado, C. G. & Peres-Cajías, J. (2019). The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960–2017. Staff Report, 579. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.579.

Kontopoulos, Y. & Perotti, R. (1999). Government fragmentation and fiscal policy outcomes: Evidence from OECD countries. In: Poterba J. M. & Von Hagen, J. (Eds.). Fiscal institutions and fiscal performance. University of Chicago Press, 81-102.

Lledó, V. et al. (2017). Fiscal rules at a glance. IMF Background Note. International Monetary Fund.

Ludke, M. & Andre, M. E. D. A. (1986). Pesquisas em educação: abordagens qualitativas. E.P.U.

Maciel, A. M. H. et al. (2021). Evolução da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal: uma análise nos municípios da região Sul do Brasil. Research, Society and Development, 10(2). http://dx.doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i2.12865.

Marandino, J. & Oddone, G. (2018). The Monetary and Fiscal History of Uruguay: 1960-2017. The University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper, n. 2018-60.

Molinas, J. R. & Pérez-Liñán, A. (2005). Who Decides on Public Expenditures? A Political Economy Analysis of the Budget Process in Paraguay. Economic and Social Study Series, RE1-05-011, Inter-American Development Bank.

North, D. C. (2018). Instituições, mudança institucional e desempenho econômico. Trad. of Alexandre Morales. Três Estrelas.

Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico - OCDE (2019). Economic Survey of Argentina. OECD Economic Surveys.

Pereira, A. S. et al. (2018). Metodologia da pesquisa cientifica. UFSM.

Perez-Reyna, D. & Osorio-Rodríguez, D. (2016). The Fiscal and Monetary History of Colombia: 1963-2012. mimeo.

Persson, T. & Svensson, L. E. O. (1989). Why a stubborn conservative would run a deficit: policy with time-inconsistent preferences. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(2), 325-345.

Poterba, J. M. & Von Hagen, J. (1999). Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.

Rodden, J. (2002). The dilemma of fiscal federalism: Grants and fiscal performance around the world. American Journal of Political Science, 670-687.

Schimidt-Hebbl, K. & Soto, R. (2018). Fiscal rules and fiscal performance: world evidence. Documento de Trabajo, 517. Instituto de Economia, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile.

Vammalle, C. & Rivadeneira, A. M. R. (2019). Budgeting in Uruguay Towards modern budgeting practices in Uruguay. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 19(1), 1-105.

Vega, M. & Martinelli, C. (2018). The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization. Departamento de Economía-Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

Von Hagen, J. (2002). Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Institutions, and Fiscal Performance. The Economic and Social Review, 33(3), 263-284.

Von Hagen, J. & Harden, I. (1996). Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline. IMF Working Paper, 96/78. International Monetary Fund.

World Bank (2019). World Bank Open Data 2019. World Bank website. https://data.worldbank.org/.

Wyplosz, C. (2013). Fiscal rules: theoretical issues and historical experiences. In: Alesina, A. & Giavazzi, F. (Eds.). Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis. University of Chicago Press, 495-530.

Publicado

15/08/2021

Cómo citar

COSTA, M. V. de C.; VASCONCELOS, M. R. Una estimación del Impacto de las instituciones presupuestarias en el equilibrio fiscal de los países de América del Sur: 1975-2017. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 10, n. 10, p. e420101019101, 2021. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v10i10.19101. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/19101. Acesso em: 22 nov. 2024.

Número

Sección

Ciencias Humanas y Sociales