Castaña del Brasil un potencial no maderero: Incertidumbres e inversiones
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i15.21868Palabras clave:
Inversión; Atractivo; Producto forestal no maderable; Volatilidad; Precios.Resumen
La castaña es uno de los principales productos forestales no maderables en Brasil, pero sus fluctuaciones de precios generan incertidumbres y riesgos tanto para los extractivistas como para los inversionistas. Los modelos econométricos u otros métodos más simples pueden estimar cambios de precios e indicar el atractivo de inversión de la castaña. El objetivo del presente estudio fue analizar la relación riesgo-rendimiento y el precio de exportación de ambos la volatilidad de la castaña en un período de 15 años. La serie histórica de precios de exportación de nueces de Brasil, nueces sin cáscara y sin cáscara, se evaluó de 2002 a 2016. La tasa de crecimiento geométrico y el coeficiente de variación indican el rendimiento y el riesgo, respectivamente, asociados con su serie de precios. La volatilidad de los precios de las castañas con y sin cáscara se estimó con la desviación estándar de la serie de precios y con modelos generalizados de ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH y TARCH). El coeficiente de nueces de Brasil sin cáscara o sin cáscara aumentó durante 15 años, con una baja relación riesgo-rendimiento. La volatilidad de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara fue menor en los períodos 2002 a 2006, 2007 a 2011 y 2012 a 2016 que para la nuez sin cáscara cuando se estimó mediante el método de desviación estándar que para la nuez sin cáscara. El precio de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara fue más alto de 2002 a 2016, con baja volatilidad y shocks persistentes. La estimación de la volatilidad de los precios de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara y sin cáscara fue mejor con los modelos TARCH y EGARCH, respectivamente.
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