Analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais: Modeling and Simulation

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6611

Keywords:

COVID-19, Epidemiological model, Pandemic.

Abstract

Understanding the spread and prevention of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has become a challenge for infectologists, researchers and managers. This study aims to simulate and analyze the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Minas Gerais - Brazil. Additionally, the transmission was projected for 30 days, as well as the impact of different rates of social isolation on the flattening of the epidemiological curve. Scilab® software was used to implement a SEIR mathematical model. The parameters were adequate based on the real data provided by the State Health Secretariat (SES). The results showed that the model adequately represented confirmed cases (R2=0.994) and deaths (R2=0.991). The model  projection indicates that the peak of the disease in the state of Minas Gerais will occur around 08/20/2020. The scenario without social isolation estimates 10,060 deaths until 12/04/2020. The model projects a reduction of 987 victims with 50% isolation (9,073 deaths); 1,991 victims with 70% isolation (8,069 deaths) and 6,770 victims with lockdown (3,290 deaths). It can be said that the isolation measures are effective in flattening the COVID-19 contamination curve. Mathematical models can contribute to the choice of intervention strategies and reveal important aspects about disease spreads.

Author Biography

  • Anamaria de Oliveira Cardoso, Federal University of Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri

References

Abou-Ismail, A. (2020). Compartmental Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic forPhysicians and Physician-Scientists. SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42399-020-00330-z

Almeida, I. M. (2020). Proteção da saúde dos trabalhadores da saúde em tempos de COVID-19 e respostas à pandemia. Revista Brasileira de Saúde Ocupacional, 45, e17. https://doi.org/10.1590/scielopreprints.140

Alves, C. R. L., Alvim, C. G., Machado, E., Giatti, L., Barreto, S. M., & Tupinambás, U. (2020). Por que ainda não é o momento para flexibilizar o isolamento social em Minas Gerais? Nove argumentos com embasamento científico. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. https://www.sinter-mg.org.br/wp-content/uploads/

Aquino, E. M. L., Silveira, I. H., Pescarini, J. M., Aquino, R., & Souza-Filho, J. A. (2020). Medidas de distanciamento social no controle da pandemia de COVID-19: potenciais impactos e desafios no Brasil. Ciência & Saúde Coletiva, 25(supl 1), 2423–2446. https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232020256.1.10502020

Barbosa, R. S., Soares, A. S. S., Coelho, D. A., & Santos, D. A. (2016). Software de simulações dos modelos Sir e Seir como ferramenta de gerenciamento ambiental de doenças epidemiológicas. Scientia Cum Industria, 4(2), 114–118. https://doi.org/10.18226/23185279.v4iss2p114

COES. (2020). Boletim epidemiológico. Centro de operações de emergência em Saúde Pública. http://coronavirus.saude.mg.gov.br/boletim

Duczmal, L. H., Almeida, A. C. L., Duczmal, D. B., Alves, C. R. L., Magalhães, F. C. O., Lima, M. S., Silva, I. R., & Takahashi, R. H. C. (2020). Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 36(5), e00084420. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00084420

Eikenberry, S. E., Mancuso, M., Iboi, E., Phan, T., Eikenberry, K., Kuang, Y., Kostelich, E., & Gumel, A. B. (2020). To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 293–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001

Goyal, A., Liao, L. E., & Perelson, A. S. (2019). Within-host mathematical models of hepatitis B virus infection: Past, present, and future. Current Opinion in Systems Biology, 18, 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coisb.2019.10.003

Ibarra-Vega, D. (2020). Lockdown, one, two, none, or smart. Modeling containing covid-19 infection. A conceptual model. Science of The Total Environment, 730, 138917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138917

IBGE. (2019). População estimada. Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais.

IBGE. (2020). Área da unidade territorial: Área territorial brasileira. https://www.ibge.gov.br/cidades-e-estados/mg.html

Kim, S., Lee, J., & Jung, E. (2017). Mathematical model of transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in the Republic of Korea. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 412, 74–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.09.025

Lalwani, S., Sahni, G., Mewara, B., & Kumar, R. (2020). Predicting optimal lockdown period with parametric approach using three-phase maturation SIRD model for COVID-19 pandemic. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 138, 109939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109939

Ndaïrou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., & Torres, D. F. M. (2020). Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 135, 109846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846

Nussbaumer-Streit, B., Mayr, V., Dobrescu, A. I., Chapman, A., Persad, E., Klerings, I., Wagner, G., Siebert, U., Christof, C., Zachariah, C., & Gartlehner, G. (2020). Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD013574

SES. (2020). Painel de Monitoramento dos Casos. http://coronavirus.saude.mg.gov.br/painel

Yang, H. M., & Ferreira, C. P. (2008). Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 198(1), 401–413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2007.08.046

Zhu, W., Li, X., Wu, Y., Xu, C., Li, L., Yang, J., & Fang, S. (2020). Community quarantine strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 in Anhui: An evaluation based on trauma center patients. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 96, 417–421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.016

Published

2020-07-21

Issue

Section

Engineerings

How to Cite

Analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais: Modeling and Simulation. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 9, n. 8, p. e812986611, 2020. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6611. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/rsd/article/view/6611. Acesso em: 8 aug. 2025.