Evaluation of probability distributions in the analysis of minimum temperature series in Manaus – AM

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i3.13616

Keywords:

Distribution adjustment; Temperature data; Rice distribution; Log-Normal Distribution; Gumbel II distribution.

Abstract

The relevance in studying climatological phenomena is based on the influence that variables of this nature exert on the world. Among the most observed variables, temperature stands out, whose effect of its variation may cause significant impacts, such as the proliferation of biological species, agricultural production, population health, etc. Probability distributions have been studied to verify the best fit to describe and/or predict the behavior of climate variables and, in this context, the present study evaluated, among six probability distributions, the best fit to describe a historical temperature series. minimum monthly mean. The series used in this study encompass a period of 38 years (1980 to 2018) separated by month from the weather station of the Manaus - AM station (OMM: 82331) obtained from INMET, totaling 459 observations. Difference-Sign and Turning Point tests were used to verify data independence and the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramér-von Mises, Akaike Information Criterion and quantile-quantile plots were used to select the best fit distribution. Log-Normal, Gama, Weibull, Gumbel type II, Benini and Rice distributions were evaluated, with the best performing Rice, Log-Normal and Gumbel II distributions being highlighted.

Author Biographies

Yana Miranda Borges, Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Amazonas

Graduated in Statistics from the Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM). Master in Biostatistics by the State University of Maringá (UEM), Maringá, PR.

Breno Gabriel da Silva, University of São Paulo

Graduated in Mathematics from the State University of Maringá (UEM). Master in Biostatistics by the State University of Maringá (UEM). PhD student in Statistics and Agricultural Experimentation at the School of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz" - University of São Paulo (ESALQ / USP).

Brian Alvarez Ribeiro de Melo, State University of Maringá

He has an undergraduate degree from the Federal University of São Carlos, a master's degree in Statistics from the University of São Paulo and a doctorate in Statistics from the University of São Paulo. He is currently an adjunct professor at the State University of Maringá.

Robério Rebouças da Silva, Getúlio Vargas University Hospital

Graduated in Statistics from the Federal University of Amazonas. He is currently responsible for the Medical Archive and Statistics Service - SAME of Getúlio Vargas University Hospital - HUGV. 

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Published

22/03/2021

How to Cite

BORGES, Y. M.; SILVA, B. G. da .; MELO, B. A. R. de .; SILVA, R. R. da . Evaluation of probability distributions in the analysis of minimum temperature series in Manaus – AM. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 10, n. 3, p. e46210313616, 2021. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v10i3.13616. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13616. Acesso em: 15 jan. 2025.

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 3

Section

Exact and Earth Sciences

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Copyright (c) 2021 Yana Miranda Borges; Breno Gabriel da Silva; Brian Alvarez Ribeiro de Melo; Robério Rebouças da Silva

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