Analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais: Modeling and Simulation

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6611

Keywords:

COVID-19; Epidemiological model; Pandemic.

Abstract

Understanding the spread and prevention of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has become a challenge for infectologists, researchers and managers. This study aims to simulate and analyze the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Minas Gerais - Brazil. Additionally, the transmission was projected for 30 days, as well as the impact of different rates of social isolation on the flattening of the epidemiological curve. Scilab® software was used to implement a SEIR mathematical model. The parameters were adequate based on the real data provided by the State Health Secretariat (SES). The results showed that the model adequately represented confirmed cases (R2=0.994) and deaths (R2=0.991). The model  projection indicates that the peak of the disease in the state of Minas Gerais will occur around 08/20/2020. The scenario without social isolation estimates 10,060 deaths until 12/04/2020. The model projects a reduction of 987 victims with 50% isolation (9,073 deaths); 1,991 victims with 70% isolation (8,069 deaths) and 6,770 victims with lockdown (3,290 deaths). It can be said that the isolation measures are effective in flattening the COVID-19 contamination curve. Mathematical models can contribute to the choice of intervention strategies and reveal important aspects about disease spreads.

Author Biography

Anamaria de Oliveira Cardoso, Federal University of Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri


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Published

21/07/2020

How to Cite

SOUSA, N. G.; CARDOSO, A. de O.; CARDOSO, R. F.; UTSUMI, A. G. Analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais: Modeling and Simulation. Research, Society and Development, [S. l.], v. 9, n. 8, p. e812986611, 2020. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6611. Disponível em: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6611. Acesso em: 25 apr. 2024.

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 8

Section

Engineerings

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Copyright (c) 2020 Nádia Guimarães Sousa, Anamaria de Oliveira Cardoso, Renato Fleury Cardoso, Alex Garcez Utsumi

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