Otimização de portfólio: Métrica do risco com espaço objetivo aumentado
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i5.15189Palavras-chave:
Métrica do risco; Espaço objetivo aumentado; Métrica estatística eficiente; Novas métricas para eficiência do portfólio; Otimização de portfólio.Resumo
O modelo de portfólio EV eficiente de Markowitz, dado um retorno mínimo requerido, minimiza a variância do portfólio, uma métrica do risco de tendência central calculada pelo método estatístico de concentração de dados, e assim utiliza uma fórmula literal permitindo a solução da otimização por um algoritmo quadrático, exigindo pouco consumo computacional. As evoluções do modelo de Markowitz para métricas assimétricas do risco, minimizam e/ou maximizam o risco, abaixo e/ou acima de um alvo t, como o downside risk, o mean-separated target deviations, o value at risk e o conditional value at risk, porém, não permitem utilizar uma fórmula literal para solução da otimização, transformada em um algoritmo não suave, com solução complexa e maior consumo computacional. O aspecto relevante do modelo de Markowitz foi mostrar que o mais importante não é o risco do ativo mas a contribuição que cada ativo fornece para o risco do portfólio, que depende das interrelações entre os ativos, a covariância do portfólio. Estendendo o raciocínio como contribuição original e relevante, o artigo apresenta uma nova métrica assimétrica do risco, com maior detalhamento das interrelações entre os ativos, aumentando o espaço objetivo da otimização, com maior número de parâmetros otimizados, possibilitando a busca por melhores resultados e utilizando uma expressão literal permitindo solução por um algoritmo não linear, menos complexo que o algoritmo não suave. A análise bibliométrica realizada demonstra a originalidade da evolução do modelo de Markowitz para métricas assimétricas do risco, apresentando fórmula literal para solução e com espaço objetivo aumentado.
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