The price of natural gas for vehicles in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul and its relationship with Henry Hub and Brent prices evaluated by “Machine Learning” techniques
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v11i15.37406Keywords:
Energy; Price indexes; Fossil fuel; Transport; Mato Grosso do SulAbstract
The transport sector is intense in the use of energy, most of which is still obtained through fossil fuels. In the context of global warming and the substitution of the energy matrix, natural gas is considered a transition source since it pollutes less than alternative sources and it has a readily usable technology. Thus, it is important to know its local price behavior in relation to the main energy indexes in the world. The objective of this work was to identify the correlation between the price of natural gas used for vehicles [VNG] in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul [MS] and the Henry Hub [HH] and Brent indices, and to develop predictive models for the phenomenon. For the analysis, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the multiple linear regression model were used, carried out in two stages, the first with the price of VNG in MS in BRL, and the second with the price of VNG in MS in US$. In the first analysis, there was a strong positive correlation between the price in BRL and the exchange rate. In the second analysis, after adjusting the price of VNG in MS in US$, there was a strong correlation between the price of VNG in MS and the Brent index.
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