Análise multifractal do índice de precipitação padronizado
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i7.16535Palavras-chave:
Multrifactal; Precipitação; SPI; Pernambuco.Resumo
Em muitos países tropicais incluindo Brasil observou-se que as mudanças nos padrões de chuva causam inundações e secas com tendência a continuar se agravar durante século 21. Para diminuir as consequências na vida e saúde humana, atividades econômicas, ecossistemas e infraestrutura é necessário desenvolver modelos de previsão mais confiáveis. O primeiro passo nesta direção é uma análise detalhada da variabilidade climática na região estudada. Neste trabalho analisou-se propriedades multifractais das séries temporais do Índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI), desenvolvido para classificar condições secas/úmidas de acordo com severidade. Este índice foi calculado para diferentes escalas de tempo (1, 3, 6 e 12 meses) e analisado utilizando o método Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Os parâmetros de complexidade do espectro multifractal (posição de máximo, largura e assimetria) junto com o expoente de Hurst, mostraram que as séries de SPI são geradas pelo processo multifractal com multifractalidade e persistência mais forte para maiores escalas de acumulação da chuva.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva; Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes; Tatijana Stosic
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